Is a crowded app niche a closed one?

How did we measure crowding and survival?

A market is one niche on one store, either the App Store in the US or Google Play in the US. We used the 56 markets that have a page on this site: 31 on the App Store and 25 on Google Play.

• Crowded means many recent launches: the number of different apps that match the niche, were released in the last 12 months, and hold one of the first ten search results for at least one of the niche's core keywords.
• New app means an app released 6 to 12 months before the scan. Apps younger than 6 months count toward crowding, but they are too young to judge, so they are left out of the survival count.
• Reached 50 ratings means the store page showed at least 50 ratings. App Store counts are US ratings only. Google Play counts are worldwide, so 50 is easier to reach there. We never compare the two stores.

Within each store we ranked markets by recent launches and cut the list into thirds, splitting ties by name. Each table below shows how many markets and how many new apps sit in each third.

Do crowded App Store niches leave fewer newcomers standing?

No. The most crowded third kept the most newcomers: 24 of 257 reached 50 ratings.

Across all 31 App Store markets, 34 of 438 new apps reached 50 ratings (7.8%). In 20 of the 31 markets, none did. The other two thirds together had 10 of 181 (5.5%). A Fisher exact test of the most crowded third against the rest gives p = 0.15, so a gap this size often shows up by chance. Read it as no sign that crowding closes a niche, not as proof that crowding helps.

Do crowded Google Play niches leave fewer newcomers standing?

Slightly, but not clearly. The most crowded third had 11 of 76 (14.5%); the least crowded had 8 of 45 (17.8%).

The middle third did best, 16 of 68 (23.5%), so the thirds do not line up in any order. Over all 25 Google Play markets, 35 of 189 new apps reached 50 ratings (18.5%), and 9 markets had none. The same test gives p = 0.26. Do not set these shares against the App Store ones: Play counts ratings worldwide, so 50 ratings is easier to reach here, and that is a difference in counting, not in how open the store is.

Why does the App Store's most crowded third look better?

Two niches carry it. On the App Store, card scanner had 11 of 33 new apps reach 50 ratings, and quit porn had 7 of 81. Together they hold 18 of the 24 survivors in that third. The other 8 crowded markets had 6 of 143 (4.2%), lower than the least crowded third.

So the average hides two kinds of crowded market. In one kind, new apps keep finding users. In the other, many apps launch and almost none get past 50 ratings. The number of apps alone does not show which kind you face. We also sorted by the total number of different apps on the first page, not just recent ones. The result held: 6.2%, 6.3%, 9.1% on the App Store, and 17.3%, 21.0%, 17.3% on Google Play, from least to most crowded.

Which crowded niches still let newcomers in, and which do not?

All of these sit in the most crowded third of their store.

• App Store, still open: card scanner (11 of 33 new apps reached 50 ratings), screen time control (3 of 24).
• App Store, no newcomer past 50 ratings: subscription tracker (0 of 21), ai note taker (0 of 21), esim travel (0 of 20).
• Google Play, still open: quit porn (4 of 12), calorie counter (3 of 10).
• Google Play, no newcomer past 50 ratings: debt payoff has the most recent launches on Play, 50, and 0 of its 13 new apps reached 50 ratings.

Each link opens the market page, where the first block lists the new apps and their rating counts.

What does this count not tell you?

• It sees only apps that hold a first-page spot today. An app that climbed and then dropped out is not counted, so every figure leans toward apps that did well.
• The markets are the ones this site tracks, not a random sample of the stores. 11 of the 56 are case studies we first measured for our own product decisions.
• Each third holds 8 to 11 markets. One niche can move a third a lot.
• 50 ratings is a threshold we chose. It signals real users, not revenue, and we do not estimate downloads or revenue.
• This is a snapshot of one scan. Crowded niches may also have more people searching, which would help new apps collect ratings. We did not measure that here.

What should you check before entering a crowded niche?

Look at the niche's own survival count, not at how many apps it has. On each market page, the first block shows how many apps released 6 to 12 months ago hold a first-page spot and how many of them reached 50 ratings. A crowded niche with several survivors is not the same as a crowded niche with none. If none of 15 or more new apps got past 50 ratings, new apps there are not finding users right now. If a niche has fewer than 5 new apps to judge, the count says little either way. All 56 markets are listed on the front page, and the methodology page explains each figure.

What else do builders ask about crowded niches?

Is a saturated app niche the same as a crowded one?
Not in our data. In 16 of the 27 App Store markets with at least 5 new apps to judge, no new app reached 50 ratings, and those markets ranged from 7 to 51 recent launches. Some quiet niches are closed and some busy ones are open.

How many ratings does a new app need to count as making it?
We use 50 ratings on the store page. It is low enough for a small app and high enough to show people use it.

How often is this updated?
Market pages update after each nightly scan. This analysis is fixed to the scan of October 4, 2026, and the date above says which scan it reflects.